CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Tue 22 Nov 06:00 - Wed 23 Nov 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 22 Nov 01:16 (UTC)
FORECASTER: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

A blocked situation, with the anticyclonic half of the dipole over the British Isles and the cyclonic half (upper cold pool) over the Balkan at 500 hPa. Cold boundary layer airmass slides from the continent into the Mediterranean Sea, while a warm airmass pushes northeastward into southern Greece and Italy.

DISCUSSION

...Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea...
Upper cold pool and steep low-level lapse rates create an environment conducive to convection with some thunder and probably a number of waterspouts as well. Some storms may remain stationary but with the low precipitable water content of the cold airmass running off the continent, precip amounts are likely no to lead to flash flooding. In the warm airmass over southern Greece the most vigorous storms are expected to form, but deep-layer shear and SREH conditions are not progged to be displaced from instability.

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